Big oil to boost petrochemicals footprint 大石油增加石化產品的足跡

While the US cracker wave on the back of the shale gas boom is getting much of the attention, big oil and gas players in the Middle East are lining up mega projects that could shift the landscape of global petrochemicals from 2025 and beyond.

盡管美國在頁巖氣壓裂促進頁巖氣繁榮并受到人們的普遍關注，但中東地區的大型石油和天然氣企業卻在準備大型項目，這些項目可能從2025年及以后改變全球石化產品的格局。

Driving this push from oil companies is the growing realisation that oil demand for transportation fuel will plateau with the electrification of vehicles and improving fuel efficiency.

隨著汽車電動化和燃油效率的提高，人們越來越認識到運輸燃料油的需求將趨于平穩，這正是石油公司推動這一趨勢的原因。

Thus, the future for hydrocarbons is not in gasoline and diesel, but in chemicals, where demand should continue to climb alongside GDP growth.

因此，碳氫化合物的未來不在于汽油和柴油，而在于化學品，在這些領域，需求將隨著國內生產總值的增長而繼續攀升。

And its clear that ‘big oil’ is no longer satisfied simply providing feedstock for the downstream chemical sector.

很明顯，“大石油”不再僅僅滿足于為下游化工部門提供原料。

ADNOCs US$45 billion investment plan ADNOC的450億美元投資計劃

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) wants to “stretch the dollar” from the barrel of oil to the maximum through producing chemicals, said CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber.

阿布扎比國家石油公司（ADNOC）的首席執行官SultanAhmedAl-Jaber說，阿布扎比國家石油公司（ADNOC）希望通過生產化學品將利潤從每桶石油“拉到最大”。

ADNOC is embarking on a US$45 billion investment plan with a goal to more than triple petrochemicals capacity at its Ruwais site from a 2016 base of 4.5 million tpy to 14.4 million tpy by 2025, and adding new downstream product chains in construction chemicals, oilfield chemicals, surfactants and detergents.

ADNOC正在著手一項450億美元的投資計劃，目標是到2025年，其Ruwais工廠的石油化工產能將從2016年的450萬噸/年增至1440萬噸/年，并在建筑石化品、油田石化品、表面活性劑和洗滌劑中增加新的下游產品鏈。

In February 2019, its 50/50 joint venture (JV) company Borouge awarded front-end engineering and design (FEED) contracts for the fourth phase of its expansion in Ruwais which will include a 1.8 million tpy mixed feed cracker and add a total of 3.3 million tpy of olefins and aromatics capacity.

2019年2月，其50/50合資公司Borouge授予其在Ruwais擴建第四階段的前端工程和設計（FEED）合同，其中包括180萬噸/年的混合原料裂解爐，并增加330萬噸/年的烯烴和芳烴產能。

The cracker will be the first in the country to use mixed feeds. The feedstock slate will be ethane, butane and naphtha.

這種裂解爐將是國內第一種使用混合原料的裂解爐。原料為乙烷、丁烷和石腦油。

“The Middle East is running out of cheap natural gas. All new projects are mixed feed, with a typical mix of about 35% ethane, and 65% propane, butane and naphtha which is not as advantaged as ethane,” said Hassan Ahmed, analyst at US-based investment research firm Alembic Global Advisors.

“中東的廉價天然氣正在枯竭。美國投資研究公司Alembic Global Advisors的分析師哈桑?艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed）表示，所有新項目都是混合原料，典型的混合原料包括35%的乙烷、65%的丙烷、丁烷和石腦油，這些都不如乙烷裂解有優勢。

While ADNOC and JV partner Borealis plan to finalise the downstream configuration within three months of the FEED contract awards, it should include polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).

雖然ADNOC和合資伙伴Borealis計劃在FEED合同授予后三個月內完成下游配置，但應包括聚乙烯（PE）和聚丙烯（PP）。

Saudi Aramcos plan 沙特阿美計劃

Saudi Aramcos planned crude oil to chemicals (COTC) complex with SABIC in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most watched project on the planet as it could have stunning implications for the petrochemicals sector.

沙特阿美計劃在延布與沙特基礎工業公司（SABIC）建立的原油化工聯合企業（COTC）,全球最受關注的這個項目，因為它可能對石化行業產生驚人的影響。

Featuring a budget of around US$30 billion and a process to convert 400 000 bpd of crude oil to 9 million t of chemicals and base oils, the mega complex is expected to start operations in 2025.

該大型綜合設施的預算約為300億美元，并將40萬桶原油轉化為900萬噸化學品和基礎油，預計將于2025年開始運營。

The initial plan was to convert 45% of each oil barrel to petrochemicals. However, Aramco aims to boost that figure significantly by advancing its proprietary process technology.

最初的計劃是將每桶45%的石油轉化為石化產品。然而，Aramco的目標是通過推進其專有工藝技術來顯著提高這一數字。

Aramco believes it can convert between 60 – 70% of the oil barrel into petrochemicals using this technology.

阿美石油相信，利用這項技術，它可以將60-70%的石油桶轉化為石化產品。

Petrochemicals are averaging about 10 – 15% of global refinery output, with wide differences between integrated complexes.

石化產品平均約占全球煉油廠產量的10-15%，綜合復合物之間存在很大差異。

“In recent years, refiners have increasingly raised their share of petrochemical output at the expense of traditional fuels. Some of the new refineries in China can convert up to 40%,” according to Stefano Zehnder, Vice President of Consulting at ICIS. “

近年來，煉油廠以犧牲傳統燃料為代價，越來越多地提高了石油化工產量的份額。ICIS咨詢部副總裁斯特凡諾森德（Stefano Zehnder）表示，中國的一些新煉油廠的轉化率可達40%。

“In Saudi Arabia the original base concept is rapidly evolving. It’s clear Aramco is looking to scale up to commercial size its crude-to-chemicals technologies,” said Zehnder.

“在沙特阿拉伯，最初的基礎概念正在迅速發展。森德說：“很明顯，Aramco正尋求擴大到商業規模，將其原油轉化為化工技術。”

“With the potential for further increase from the base 45% yield, this points to even higher petrochemicals and base oils capacities than the 9 million tpy base. The final configuration will be function of the desired balance between petrochemicals, base oil and fuel products,” he added.

“隨著基礎產量進一步增加45%的潛力，這意味著石化產品和基礎油產能將比900萬噸/年的基礎更高。最終配置將是石化產品、基礎油和燃料產品之間所需平衡的功能，”他補充說。

Ahmed from Alembic Global Advisors notes that crude oil-to-chemicals is all about “integration and trying to be more efficient both upstream and downstream”.

來自Alembic Global Advisors的Ahmed指出，原油轉化為化學產品的關鍵在于“整合，并努力在上游和下游提高效率”。

Thats because “every new facility in the Middle East puts them higher on the cost curve”, a function of the mixed feedstock slate.

這是因為“中東的每一個新工廠都會使成本曲線更高”，這是混合原料的一個功能。

Aramco plans to invest an eye popping US$100 billion in petrochemicals over the next 10 years, CEO Amin Nasser said at the Gulf Petrochemicals Association (GPCA) annual meeting in Dubai in November 2018.

阿美石油公司（Aramco）首席執行官納賽爾（Amin Nasser）在2018年11月于迪拜舉行的海灣石油化工協會（GPCA）年會上表示，該公司計劃在未來10年內投資1000億美元，引人注目。

In October 2018, Aramco and France-based Total signed a joint development agreement for the front-end engineering and design (FEED) of their planned joint venture petrochemicals complex in Jubail, Saudi Arabia.

2018年10月，沙特阿美石油公司和總部位于法國的道達爾公司簽署了一份聯合開發協議，為其計劃在沙特阿拉伯朱拜勒的合資石化綜合設施的前端工程和設計（FEED）提供服務。

The US$5 billion project, slated for start-up in 2024, will comprise a mixed-feed (50% ethane, 50% refinery off-gases) cracker with 1.5 million tpy of ethylene capacity and downstream units.

該項目耗資50億美元，計劃于2024年啟動，將包括一個混合原料（50%乙烷，50%煉油廠廢氣）裂解爐，乙烯產能為150萬噸/年，以及下游裝置。

The petrochemical complex will be downstream of Aramco and Totals joint venture SATORP refinery and the companies expect an additional US$4 billion in investments in petrochemicals and speciality chemicals capacity from third-party investors.

石化綜合設施將位于Aramco和道達爾合資的Satorp煉油廠的下游，公司預計第三方投資者將額外投資40億美元用于石化和特殊化學品產能。

Aramco is also in the process of merging with Saudi Arabia-based petrochemicals and polymers giant SABIC.

阿美石油還正在與沙特阿拉伯的石化和聚合物巨頭沙特基礎工業公司（SABIC）合并。

Mega projects worldwide 全球大型項目 Aramco and Abu Dhabis ADNOC are not only ploughing investment dollars in their backyards but setting up mega complexes around the world.

Aramco和阿布扎比的Adnoc不僅在他們的后院投入了大量的投資，還在世界各地建立了大型綜合設施。

The most ambitious among these is the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed in June 2018 between Aramco, ADNOC, and a consortium of Indian oil companies (Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum) to build a US$44 billion refining and petrochemicals complex in India with 18 million tpy of petrochemicals capacity.

其中最雄心勃勃的是阿美石油公司（Aramco）、ADNOC和印度石油公司（印度石油、印度斯坦石油、巴拉特石油）聯合體于2018年6月簽署的諒解備忘錄（MOU），旨在在印度建立一個440億美元的煉油和石化聯合企業，石化產能為1800萬噸/年。

Aramco and ADNOC would jointly own 50% of the project, with the Indian consortium owning the other half.

Aramco和Adnoc將共同擁有該項目的50%，而印度財團則擁有另一半。

The Indian government expects construction to start in 2020 in Raigad, India with completion of the project by 2025.

印度政府預計，該項目將于2020年在印度拉伊加德開工，到2025年竣工。

Alembic Global Advisors Ahmed cautions on raising expectations from MoUs.

Alembic Global Advisors的艾哈邁德（Ahmed）警告說，要提高《諒解備忘錄》的預期。

“The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia went on a tour across Asia and many MoUs were signed. But MoUs sometimes dont materialise. Until we see steel in the ground, we typically don’t take them too seriously,” said Ahmed.

沙特阿拉伯王儲開始了亞洲之旅，簽署了許多諒解備忘錄。但諒解備忘錄有時不會實現。在我們看到地下有鋼鐵之前，我們通常不會太認真地對待它們，”艾哈邁德說。

China is another target for Middle East oil companies. In February 2019, Aramco signed an agreement with Chinas NORINCO Group and Panjin Sincen to develop a US$10 billion+ fully integrated refining and petrochemical complex in Liaoning, China with start-up expected in 2024.

中國是中東石油公司的另一個目標。2019年2月，阿美與中國北方工業集團和盤錦新世紀簽署協議，在中國遼寧開發100億美元以上的全集成煉油和石化聯合企業，預計于2024年運營。

The partners will create a new company, Huajin Aramco Petrochemical (Aramco 35%, NORINCO 36%, Panjin Sincen 29%), as part of a project that will include a 300 000 bpd refinery with a 1.5 million tpy cracker and a 1.3 million tpy paraxylene (PX) unit. Aramco will supply up to 70% of the crude oil feedstock for the complex.

合作伙伴將成立一家新公司，華錦阿美石化（Aramco 35%，Norinco 36%，Panjin Sincen 29%），作為一個項目的一部分，該項目將包括一個30萬bpd的煉油廠，150萬tpy的裂解機和130萬tpy的對二甲苯（PX）裝置。阿美石油公司將為該工廠提供高達70%的原油原料。

SABIC merger to bring projects SABIC合并帶來項目

Aramco would also inherit two additional mega projects if its planned merger with SABIC goes through.

如果沙特阿美與沙特基礎工業公司的合并計劃得以通過，阿美石油還將繼承另外兩個大型項目。

SABIC and Chinas Fuhaichuang Petrochemical are planning to jointly build a petrochemical complex in Fujian, China, a source from Fuhaichuang said in late February.

來自福建的消息人士2月下旬說，沙特基礎工業公司和中國的富海創石化計劃在中國福建共同建造一個石化工廠。

The project to be located at Gulei in Zhangzhou would include a 1.8m tpy cracker, a 600 000 tpy propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit and derivatives units, according to the Fuhaichuang source.

根據福海創的消息來源，位于漳州古雷的項目將包括一個180萬噸/年的裂解裝置、一個60萬噸/年的丙烷脫氫裝置（PDH）和衍生裝置。

However, one SABIC mega project is already underway. On the US Gulf Coast, SABIC and ExxonMobil are building a 1.8 million tpy ethane cracker in San Patricio County, Texas, with a monoethylene glycol (MEG) plant and two PE units downstream.

然而，一個SABIC大型項目已經在進行中。在美國海灣沿岸，沙特基礎工業公司和埃克森美孚公司正在德克薩斯州圣帕特里西奧縣建造一個180萬噸/年的乙烷裂解裝置，一個單乙二醇（MEG）裝置和兩個下游PE裝置。

Project completion is expected by the 4Q21 and start-up in 1H22.

4q21預計項目完成，1H22預計啟動。

Beyond the potential merger between Aramco and SABIC, Middle East oil companies could seek to acquire Western petrochemical assets.

除了Aramco和Sabic之間的潛在合并之外，中東石油公司還可以尋求收購西方石化資產。

Aramco acquired Germany-based LANXESS synthetic rubber business by buying out the latters 50% stake in their ARLANXEO joint venture in December 2018, while SABIC took a nearly 25% stake in Switzerland-based specialty chemicals and catalysts company Clariant in September 2018.

2018年12月，Aramco收購了德國Lanxess的合成橡膠業務，收購了后者在Arlanxeo合資企業50%的股份，而SABIC在2018年9月收購了瑞士特種化學品和催化劑公司Clariant近25%的股份。

Earlier major deals included SABICs acquisition of US-based GE Plastics in 2007 and Abu Dhabis IPIC (now Mubadala) buying Canadas NOVA Chemicals in 2009.

此前的主要交易包括2007年SABIC收購美國通用塑料公司（GE Plastics）和2009年阿布扎比IPIC（現穆巴達拉）收購加拿大諾瓦化工公司（Nova Chemicals）。

“They would be still be interested but we would not expect them to go too far from their comfort zone in olefins and polyolefins, and possibly in polyurethanes. We think they would look to the US rather than Europe,” said Ahmed from Alembic Global Advisors.

“他們仍會感興趣，但我們不會期望他們在烯烴和聚烯烴，以及可能在聚氨酯中的舒適區走得太遠。我們認為他們會關注美國而不是歐洲，”阿倫比克全球顧問公司的艾哈邁德說。

It’s clear Middle East oil companies have giant ambitions in petrochemicals with plans to bring on massive amounts of capacity in 2025. However, it remains to be seen what projects actually start up and in what timeframe.

很明顯，中東石油公司在石化領域有著巨大的野心，計劃在2025年實現大規模產能。然而，它仍然需要看什么項目實際啟動和時間表。